Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra, Indonesia

This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on distribution Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra by applying maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with biophysical factors (elevation, slope, aspect, and soil), climatic (19 bioclimate data sets for 2050 2070), anthropogenic (land use land cover (LULC) changes 2070). The future retrieved used are output four models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), namely, CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, MIROC5, MRI-CGCM3 models, under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 8.5 scenarios. MaxEnt modelling results showed importance mean temperature coldest quarter LULC variables. rely environmental conditions air temperatures ranging 13 19 °C. potentially suitable types shrubs, gardens, forests. predictions show that habitat is predicted decrease 3.87% 3.54% 2070 RCP4.5 scenario. Under RCP8.5 scenario, area 3.04% 1.36% 2070, respectively. degradation mainly due increasing deforestation predictions. illustrate habitats likely be reduced scenarios or lost potential extinction this species should alert authorities formulate conservation strategies. Results also demonstrated key variables formulating ex situ